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Burgos Promesas vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
9/30/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas49%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.44
La Virgen del Camino
0.94

Burgos Promesas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 111 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
75%
Burgos Promesas or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
51%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
24%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
76%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
42%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
18%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
61%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
24%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
66%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
49%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
25%

Burgos Promesas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Burgos Promesas 0–0 La Virgen del Camino

Burgos Promesas and La Virgen del Camino drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.