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La Virgen del Camino vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
4/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

La Virgen del Camino45%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.34
Becerril Campos
0.98

La Virgen del Camino creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 97 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
73%
La Virgen del Camino or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
55%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
21%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
74%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
39%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
62%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
26%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
62%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
45%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
27%

La Virgen del Camino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Becerril Campos

La Virgen del Camino and Becerril Campos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.