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Becerril Campos vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Becerril Campos39%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.27
La Virgen del Camino
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 111 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
66%
Becerril Campos or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
61%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
17%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
72%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
36%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
14%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
69%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
32%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
54%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
39%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
34%

Becerril Campos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Becerril Campos 1 – 2 La Virgen del Camino

La Virgen del Camino beat Becerril Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.