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La Virgen del Camino vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

La Virgen del Camino32%
×Draw30%
Atlético Astorga38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.00
Atlético Astorga
1.10

Atlético Astorga creates 10% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Atlético Astorga
1.27

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Atlético Astorga
0.89

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Atlético Astorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
62%
La Virgen del Camino or Atlético Astorga
70%
Draw or Atlético Astorga
68%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
63%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
26%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
32%
level
30%
Atlético Astorga scores more
38%

Atlético Astorga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Virgen del Camino 1 – 1 Atlético Astorga

La Virgen del Camino and Atlético Astorga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.