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Atlético Astorga vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Astorga52%
×Draw26%
La Virgen del Camino22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.55
La Virgen del Camino
0.91

Atlético Astorga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
78%
Atlético Astorga or La Virgen del Camino
74%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
27%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
20%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
60%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
23%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
70%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
52%
level
26%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
22%

Atlético Astorga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Astorga 1 – 2 La Virgen del Camino

La Virgen del Camino beat Atlético Astorga 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.