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La Virgen del Camino vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Almazán
Almazán
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 19Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

La Virgen del Camino42%
×Draw29%
Almazán29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.22
Almazán
0.95

La Virgen del Camino creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 113 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Almazán
0.97

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Almazán
1.34

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Almazán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
71%
La Virgen del Camino or Almazán
71%
Draw or Almazán
58%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
19%
Almazán wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
70%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
34%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
12%
Almazán 1+ goals
61%
Almazán 2+ goals
25%
Almazán 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
60%
Almazán (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Almazán attack 0.97 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
42%
level
29%
Almazán scores more
29%

La Virgen del Camino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Almazán

La Virgen del Camino and Almazán drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.