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Almazán vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
12/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Almazán48%
×Draw26%
La Virgen del Camino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.52
La Virgen del Camino
1.04

Almazán creates 46% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 111 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
74%
Almazán or La Virgen del Camino
74%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
52%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
24%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
78%
Almazán 2+ goals
45%
Almazán 3+ goals
20%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
65%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
28%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
65%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almazán scores more
48%
level
26%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
26%

Almazán at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almazán vs La Virgen del Camino

Almazán beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.