La Unión Atlético 4–3 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Huércal Overa

Renato 61'

Perico 40' (pen)

Ketchup 16'

David Valdeolivas 5'

Campanas 77' (pen), 19' (pen)

Alberto Fernández 70'

2/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético60%

×Draw24%

Huércal Overa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.71

La Unión Atlético

1.64

Huércal Overa

0.71

La Unión Atlético creates 131% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

1.60

creates per match

0.79

0.62

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

84%

La Unión Atlético or Huércal Overa

76%

Draw or Huércal Overa

40%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

33%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

81%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

49%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

23%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

51%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

16%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

79%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

60%

level

24%

Huércal Overa scores more

16%

La Unión Atlético at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

David Valdeolivas

16'

Ketchup

19'

CampanasPenalty

40'

PericoPenalty

46'

Jaime← Ivan Ezequiel

60'

Chema← Alberto

61'

Renato

70'

Alberto Fernández

75'

Heredia← Asensio Miñarro

77'

CampanasPenalty

82'

Rubén← Ketchup

84'

Iván Santisteban← Perico

Huércal

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Perico

⚽

Renato

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

60'▲Chema←▼Alberto

82'▲Rubén←▼Ketchup

84'▲Iván Santisteban←▼Perico

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ChemaRubénSantisteban

Manager: Antonio Alcázar

46'▲Jaime←▼Ivan Ezequiel

75'▲Heredia←▼Asensio Miñarro

Huércal Overa substitutes

JaimeHeredia

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 4–3 Huércal Overa

La Unión Atlético beat Huércal Overa 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 21, 2021.

Goals: David Valdeolivas (5'), Ketchup (16'), Campanas (19' pen, 77' pen), Perico (40' pen), Renato (61'), Alberto Fernández (70').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 4–3 Huércal Overa