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Huércal Overa vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Omar Saura 89'
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa35%
×Draw29%
La Unión Atlético35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.08
La Unión Atlético
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
65%
Huércal Overa or La Unión Atlético
71%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
65%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
14%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
66%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
29%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
10%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
66%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
29%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
50%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
35%
level
29%
La Unión Atlético scores more
35%

Huércal Overa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
Ivan Ferrer← G. Ezequiel
52'
A. Luque← José García
55'
Nico González← Víctor Monteiro
55'
Omar Saura← Cristian Muñoz
65'
Sergio Ponte← Jaime
77'
Chema← Adrián Aguirre
85'
Álex Jiménez← Dani Bermejo
89'
Omar Saura
Huércal
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Cristian Muñoz
▼
Muñoz
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Yeray
Yeray
Víctor Monteiro
▼
Monteiro
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Dani Bermejo
▼
Bermejo
Belencoso
Belencoso
Javier García
García
E. Monemou
Monemou
David Simón
Simón
Adrían Carrillo
Carrillo
G. Ezequiel
▼
Ezequiel
Jaime
▼
Jaime
José García
▼
García
Martín Velgas
Velgas
Alberto Fernández
Fernández
Campanas
Campanas
A. Sidibé
Sidibé
Roberto Lucas
Manager: Roberto Lucas
52'▲Ivan Ferrer←▼G. Ezequiel
52'▲A. Luque←▼José García
65'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Jaime

Huércal Overa substitutes

FerrerLuquePonte
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
55'▲Nico González←▼Víctor Monteiro
55'▲Omar Saura←▼Cristian Muñoz
77'▲Chema←▼Adrián Aguirre
85'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Dani Bermejo

La Unión Atlético substitutes

GonzálezSauraChemaJiménez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 0–1 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Huércal Overa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 20, 2022.

Goals: Omar Saura (89').

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.