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La Unión Atlético vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
Belencoso 73', 50' (pen)
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético56%
×Draw25%
El Palmar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Unión Atlético
1.59
El Palmar
0.82

La Unión Atlético creates 94% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

La Unión Atlético
1.60
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

La Unión Atlético
0.62
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw
81%
La Unión Atlético or El Palmar
75%
Draw or El Palmar
44%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
30%
El Palmar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
80%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
47%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
21%
El Palmar 1+ goals
56%
El Palmar 2+ goals
20%
El Palmar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
74%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

El Palmar attack 1.03 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more
56%
level
25%
El Palmar scores more
19%

La Unión Atlético at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
BelencosoPenalty
61'
Juan Arcas← Nico González
61'
Adrián Aguirre← Chema
61'
Sam Philip← Fran Conesa
70'
Nico Abenza← Sanchez
72'
Francisco Matallana← Sergio Jiménez
73'
Belencoso
83'
Álex Jiménez← Belencoso
83'
Juan Acosta← David Valdeolivas
La
El
Alberto Hortal
Hortal
Paco López
López
Miguel Ruiz
Ruiz
Trucha
Trucha
Andrés García
García
Sampa
Sampa
Tato
Tato
Sanchez
▼
Sanchez
Mascuñán
Mascuñán
Fran Conesa
▼
Conesa
Pedro Martinez
Martinez
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
David Valdeolivas
▼
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
▼
Jiménez
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
⚽2
▼
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
61'▲Juan Arcas←▼Nico González
61'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Chema
72'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Sergio Jiménez
83'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Belencoso
83'▲Juan Acosta←▼David Valdeolivas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ArcasAguirreMatallanaJiménezAcosta
Patricio Molina
Manager: Patricio Molina
61'▲Sam Philip←▼Fran Conesa
70'▲Nico Abenza←▼Sanchez

El Palmar substitutes

PhilipAbenza

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 2–0 El Palmar

La Unión Atlético beat El Palmar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 21, 2021.

Goals: Belencoso (50' pen, 73').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.