Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

El Palmar vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Diego Sánchez 14'
Jorge Martínez 90+4'
David Valdeolivas 63'
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

El Palmar36%
×Draw27%
La Unión Atlético36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.22
La Unión Atlético
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 45 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
64%
El Palmar or La Unión Atlético
73%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
64%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
16%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
70%
El Palmar 2+ goals
34%
El Palmar 3+ goals
12%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
70%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
34%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
50%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

El Palmar scores more
36%
level
27%
La Unión Atlético scores more
36%

El Palmar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Diego Sánchez
44'
Álvaro Quintana← Nico Abenza
46'
Fran Conesa← Mascuñán
50'
Sergio Jiménez← Omar Saura
50'
Chema← Dani Bermejo
60'
Sanchez← Diego Sánchez
60'
Pedro Martinez← Salinas
63'
David Valdeolivas
73'
Paco Collados← Nico González
80'
Daniel Casado← Tato
83'
Jorge Martínez← Adrián Aguirre
90+4'
Jorge Martínez
El
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
⚽
Valdeoliv
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Dani Bermejo
▼
Bermejo
Belencoso
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Omar Saura
▼
Saura
Gabriel Martinez
Martinez
Nico Abenza
▼
Abenza
Álvaro Marín
Marín
Paco López
López
Guillermo Torres
Torres
Javi Pelayo
Pelayo
Tato
▼
Tato
Diego Sánchez
⚽
▼
Sánchez
Salinas
▼
Salinas
Mascuñán
▼
Mascuñán
Sam Philip
Philip
Antonio Calatayud
Manager: Antonio Calatayud
44'▲Álvaro Quintana←▼Nico Abenza
46'▲Fran Conesa←▼Mascuñán
60'▲Sanchez←▼Diego Sánchez
60'▲Pedro Martinez←▼Salinas
80'▲Daniel Casado←▼Tato

El Palmar substitutes

QuintanaConesaSanchezMartinezCasado
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
50'▲Sergio Jiménez←▼Omar Saura
50'▲Chema←▼Dani Bermejo
73'▲Paco Collados←▼Nico González
83'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Adrián Aguirre

La Unión Atlético substitutes

JiménezChemaColladosMartínez

El Palmar 1 – 2 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat El Palmar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Diego Sánchez (14'), David Valdeolivas (63'), Jorge Martínez (90+4').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.