La Unión Atlético 1–2 Cartagena LU II

La Unión Atlético

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cartagena LU II

Jorge Martínez 33'

Xavi Priego 52'

Revilla 12'

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético51%

×Draw27%

Cartagena LU II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchCartagena LU II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.83

La Unión Atlético

1.43

Cartagena LU II

0.83

La Unión Atlético creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.04

0.62

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Cartagena LU II

1.04

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Cartagena LU II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Cartagena LU II →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

78%

La Unión Atlético or Cartagena LU II

73%

Draw or Cartagena LU II

49%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

25%

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

76%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

42%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

17%

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

56%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

20%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

70%

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

51%

level

27%

Cartagena LU II scores more

22%

La Unión Atlético at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Revilla

33'

Jorge Martínez

38'

Xavi Priego← Djakaria Barro

44'

Álex Jiménez← Jorge Martínez

52'

Xavi Priego

59'

Schuster← Francisco Matallana

59'

Belencoso← Juan Acosta

61'

Fede← Samuel Mayo

75'

H. Eagle← Adrián Aguirre

75'

Juan Castelló← Revilla

Cartagena

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

44'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Jorge Martínez

59'▲Schuster←▼Francisco Matallana

59'▲Belencoso←▼Juan Acosta

75'▲H. Eagle←▼Adrián Aguirre

La Unión Atlético substitutes

JiménezSchusterBelencosoEagle

Manager: Aguilar

38'▲Xavi Priego←▼Djakaria Barro

61'▲Fede←▼Samuel Mayo

75'▲Juan Castelló←▼Revilla

Cartagena LU II substitutes

PriegoFedeCastelló

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 1–2 Cartagena LU II

Cartagena LU II beat La Unión Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 19, 2021.

Goals: Revilla (12'), Jorge Martínez (33'), Xavi Priego (52').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 1–2 Cartagena LU II