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Cartagena LU II vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Juampe 30'
Gastón Alonso 18'
Revilla 13'
David Valdeolivas 19'
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cartagena LU II42%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.29
La Unión Atlético
1.04

Cartagena LU II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
70%
Cartagena LU II or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
58%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
19%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
72%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
37%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
14%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
65%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
28%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
58%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
42%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
30%

Cartagena LU II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Revilla
18'
Gastón Alonso
19'
David Valdeolivas
30'
Juampe
31'
Francisco Matallana← Juan Acosta
31'
Jorge Martínez← Nico González
46'
Juan Arcas← Cristian Muñoz
46'
Omar Saura← Belencoso
66'
Andrés Rodríguez← Revilla
66'
Nasta← Antonio Sánchez
75'
Álex Jiménez← Chema
77'
Antonio López← Edu Martínez
77'
Fede← Dani Albiar
85'
Adrian Sanmartin← Gastón Alonso
Cartagena
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
▼
Muñoz
Adrián Aguirre
Aguirre
Juan Acosta
▼
Acosta
David Valdeolivas
⚽
Valdeoliv
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
Juan Pedro
Pedro
Juampe
⚽
Juampe
Antonio Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Mateo Fromsa
Fromsa
Dani Albiar
▼
Albiar
Edu Martínez
▼
Martínez
Xavi Pons
Pons
Gastón Alonso
⚽
▼
Alonso
Revilla
⚽
▼
Revilla
Miguel Garcia
Garcia
Aguilar
Manager: Aguilar
66'▲Andrés Rodríguez←▼Revilla
66'▲Nasta←▼Antonio Sánchez
77'▲Antonio López←▼Edu Martínez
77'▲Fede←▼Dani Albiar
85'▲Adrian Sanmartin←▼Gastón Alonso

Cartagena LU II substitutes

RodríguezNastaLópezFedeSanmartin
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
31'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Juan Acosta
31'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Nico González
46'▲Juan Arcas←▼Cristian Muñoz
46'▲Omar Saura←▼Belencoso
75'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

MatallanaMartínezArcasSauraJiménez

Cartagena LU II 3 – 1 La Unión Atlético

Cartagena LU II beat La Unión Atlético 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 23, 2022.

Goals: Revilla (13'), Gastón Alonso (18'), David Valdeolivas (19'), Juampe (30').

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.