La Unión Atlético 1–1 Cartagena FC: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cartagena FC

Alberto 27'

Ballesta 38'

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

La Unión Atlético54%

×Draw26%

Cartagena FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchCartagena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.85

La Unión Atlético

1.56

Cartagena FC

0.85

La Unión Atlético creates 84% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

1.60

creates per match

1.09

0.62

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Cartagena FC

1.09

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Cartagena FC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Cartagena FC →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

80%

La Unión Atlético or Cartagena FC

74%

Draw or Cartagena FC

46%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

28%

Cartagena FC wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

79%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

46%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

21%

Cartagena FC 1+ goals

57%

Cartagena FC 2+ goals

21%

Cartagena FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

73%

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

54%

level

26%

Cartagena FC scores more

20%

La Unión Atlético at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Alberto← Nono

27'

Alberto

38'

Ballesta

46'

Juan Acosta← Perico

46'

Iván Santisteban← M. Camara

71'

Ramón Mira← Douglas

75'

Miguel← Chema

75'

Renato← Alberto

84'

Ginés Moscoso← Sergio Martínez

87'

G. Ochoaizpur← José García

Cartagena

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

22'▲Alberto←▼Nono

46'▲Juan Acosta←▼Perico

46'▲Iván Santisteban←▼M. Camara

75'▲Miguel←▼Chema

75'▲Renato←▼Alberto

La Unión Atlético substitutes

AlbertoAcostaSantistebanMiguelRenato

Manager: Juan Tomás

71'▲Ramón Mira←▼Douglas

84'▲Ginés Moscoso←▼Sergio Martínez

87'▲G. Ochoaizpur←▼José García

Cartagena FC substitutes

MiraMoscosoOchoaizpur