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Cartagena FC vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
David Valdeolivas 70', 38'
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC32%
×Draw27%
La Unión Atlético41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.15
La Unión Atlético
1.33

La Unión Atlético creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
59%
Cartagena FC or La Unión Atlético
73%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
68%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
13%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
68%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
32%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
11%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
74%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
38%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
44%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
32%
level
27%
La Unión Atlético scores more
41%

La Unión Atlético at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
David Valdeolivas
46'
Toni Vela← Sergio Martínez
61'
Ginés Moscoso← M. Legaz
61'
José Morata← Ramón Mira
70'
David Valdeolivas
74'
Jorge Martínez← Nico González
74'
Paco Collados← Adrián Aguirre
82'
Sedik El Hamli← Douglas
82'
Omar Saura← David Valdeolivas
82'
Álex Jiménez← Chema
Cartagena
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
⚽2
▼
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Chema
▼
Chema
Pablo Sanz
Sanz
Jesús Olmo
Olmo
Juanma Iglesias
Iglesias
Jorge Valero
Valero
Sergio Martínez
▼
Martínez
Douglas
▼
Douglas
Mariano Pérez
Pérez
Carmelo Sánchez
Sánchez
M. Legaz
▼
Legaz
Javi Bolo
Bolo
Ramón Mira
▼
Mira
Juan Tomás
Manager: Juan Tomás
46'▲Toni Vela←▼Sergio Martínez
61'▲Ginés Moscoso←▼M. Legaz
61'▲José Morata←▼Ramón Mira
82'▲Sedik El Hamli←▼Douglas

Cartagena FC substitutes

VelaMoscosoMorataHamli
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
74'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Nico González
74'▲Paco Collados←▼Adrián Aguirre
82'▲Omar Saura←▼David Valdeolivas
82'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

MartínezColladosSauraJiménez

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Cartagena FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 17, 2022.

Goals: David Valdeolivas (38', 70').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.