La Unión Atlético 3–0 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bala Azul

Omar Saura 78'

Julio Algar 60'

Juan Arcas 7' (pen)

10/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético54%

×Draw27%

Bala Azul20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.76

La Unión Atlético

1.46

Bala Azul

0.76

La Unión Atlético creates 92% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

0.90

0.62

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Bala Azul →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

80%

La Unión Atlético or Bala Azul

73%

Draw or Bala Azul

46%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

27%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

77%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

43%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

18%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

53%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

18%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

73%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

54%

level

27%

Bala Azul scores more

20%

La Unión Atlético at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Juan ArcasPenalty

21'

Zurdo← Adrián Giménez

35'

Juanma Iglesias← A. Simpara

60'

Francisco Ruiz← Alejandro Pascual

60'

Alberto Lopez← Jaime Vera

60'

Julio Algar

65'

Nico González← Jorge Martínez

65'

Chema← Álex Jiménez

78'

Omar Saura

80'

Francisco Matallana← Omar Saura

80'

Belencoso← Juan Arcas

Bala

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Arcas

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

35'▲Juanma Iglesias←▼A. Simpara

65'▲Nico González←▼Jorge Martínez

65'▲Chema←▼Álex Jiménez

80'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Omar Saura

80'▲Belencoso←▼Juan Arcas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

IglesiasGonzálezChemaMatallanaBelencoso

Manager: Sergio Yúfera

21'▲Zurdo←▼Adrián Giménez

60'▲Francisco Ruiz←▼Alejandro Pascual

60'▲Alberto Lopez←▼Jaime Vera

Bala Azul substitutes

ZurdoRuizLopez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 3–0 Bala Azul

La Unión Atlético beat Bala Azul 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 13, 2021.

Goals: Juan Arcas (7' pen), Julio Algar (60'), Omar Saura (78').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 3–0 Bala Azul