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Bala Azul vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Salva Ballesta 32'
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bala Azul39%
×Draw30%
La Unión Atlético31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.12
La Unión Atlético
0.96

Bala Azul creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
69%
Bala Azul or La Unión Atlético
70%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
61%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
16%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
67%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
31%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
10%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
62%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
25%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
56%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bala Azul scores more
39%
level
30%
La Unión Atlético scores more
31%

Bala Azul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Salva Ballesta
46'
Nico González← Yeray
46'
Chema← Víctor Monteiro
48'
Tomás López← Pedro García
63'
Jorge Martínez← Dani Bermejo
64'
Asensio Miñarro← Diego
73'
Basilio← Salva Ballesta
78'
Paco Collados← Iván Zaragoza
Bala
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
▼
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Yeray
▼
Yeray
Víctor Monteiro
▼
Monteiro
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
A. Simpara
Simpara
Dani Bermejo
▼
Bermejo
Belencoso
Belencoso
Carles Fluixà
Fluixà
Adrián Giménez
Giménez
Zurdo
Zurdo
S. Kabore
Kabore
G. Ochoaizpur
Ochoaizpu
Ángel Álvarez
Álvarez
Pedro García
▼
García
David Manzano
Manzano
Diego
▼
Diego
Salva Ballesta
⚽
▼
Ballesta
H. Eagle
Eagle
Sergio Yúfera
Manager: Sergio Yúfera
48'▲Tomás López←▼Pedro García
64'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Diego
73'▲Basilio←▼Salva Ballesta

Bala Azul substitutes

LópezMiñarroBasilio
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Nico González←▼Yeray
46'▲Chema←▼Víctor Monteiro
63'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Dani Bermejo
78'▲Paco Collados←▼Iván Zaragoza

La Unión Atlético substitutes

GonzálezChemaMartínezCollados

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–0 La Unión Atlético

Bala Azul beat La Unión Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: Salva Ballesta (32').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.