La Unión Atlético 3–1 Atlético Pulpileño

La Unión Atlético

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Pulpileño

Javi Grillo 46' (pen)

Belencoso 36'

Walter Navarro 20'

Emilio Iglesias 90'

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético44%

×Draw29%

Atlético Pulpileño27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Pulpileño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.89

La Unión Atlético

1.23

Atlético Pulpileño

0.89

La Unión Atlético creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 93 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

0.62

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Atlético Pulpileño

1.16

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Atlético Pulpileño

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

73%

La Unión Atlético or Atlético Pulpileño

71%

Draw or Atlético Pulpileño

56%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

20%

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

71%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

35%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

62%

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

44%

level

29%

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

27%

La Unión Atlético at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Walter Navarro

36'

Belencoso

46'

Javi GrilloPenalty

54'

Emilio Iglesias← Esteban López

54'

Juanjo← Miguel Guirao

60'

Dani Díez← Higón

62'

Daniel Casado← Airam Benito

62'

Adri González← J. Toualy Dié

71'

Fran Cortés← Belencoso

78'

Tato← Vitolo

78'

Diego Gámiz← Sergio Jiménez

78'

Diego Gil← David Valdeolivas

90'

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Belencoso

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

60'▲Dani Díez←▼Higón

71'▲Fran Cortés←▼Belencoso

78'▲Tato←▼Vitolo

78'▲Diego Gámiz←▼Sergio Jiménez

78'▲Diego Gil←▼David Valdeolivas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezCortésTatoGámizGil

Manager: Loreto

54'▲Emilio Iglesias←▼Esteban López

54'▲Juanjo←▼Miguel Guirao

62'▲Daniel Casado←▼Airam Benito

62'▲Adri González←▼J. Toualy Dié

Atlético Pulpileño substitutes

IglesiasJuanjoCasadoGonzález

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Atlético Pulpileño

La Unión Atlético beat Atlético Pulpileño 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2022.

Goals: Walter Navarro (20'), Belencoso (36'), Javi Grillo (46' pen), Emilio Iglesias (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Atlético Pulpileño