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Atlético Pulpileño vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Sergio Jiménez 8' (OG)
Josema Vivancos 19'
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño44%
×Draw29%
La Unión Atlético27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.24
La Unión Atlético
0.89

Atlético Pulpileño creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
73%
Atlético Pulpileño or La Unión Atlético
71%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
20%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
13%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
59%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
22%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
63%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
44%
level
29%
La Unión Atlético scores more
27%

Atlético Pulpileño at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Sergio JiménezOwn goal
19'
Josema Vivancos
60'
Sergio Arribas← Sergio Jiménez
60'
Tato← Belencoso
75'
W. Cuero← Airam Benito
75'
Adrián Aguirre← Javi Rosa
83'
D. Denot← Vitolo
83'
Fran Cortés← S. De Echevarría
85'
Adri González← Esteban López
Atlético
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Javi Rosa
▼
Rosa
S. De Echevarría
▼
Echevarrí
Walter Navarro
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
🥅
▼
Jiménez
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
▼
Vitolo
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Josema Vivancos
⚽
Vivancos
Héctor Pizana
Pizana
Gabi Ramos
Ramos
Emilio Iglesias
Iglesias
Mateo Fromsa
Fromsa
Juanjo
Juanjo
Miguel Guirao
Guirao
Airam Benito
▼
Benito
Gorka Estrada
Estrada
J. Toualy Dié
Dié
Gabri López
López
Esteban López
▼
López
Juanjo Asensio
Manager: Juanjo Asensio
75'▲W. Cuero←▼Airam Benito
85'▲Adri González←▼Esteban López

Atlético Pulpileño substitutes

CueroGonzález
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
60'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Sergio Jiménez
60'▲Tato←▼Belencoso
75'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Javi Rosa
83'▲D. Denot←▼Vitolo
83'▲Fran Cortés←▼S. De Echevarría

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ArribasTatoAguirreDenotCortés

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs La Unión Atlético

Atlético Pulpileño and La Unión Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 5, 2023.

Goals: Sergio Jiménez (8' o.g.), Josema Vivancos (19').

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.