La Unión Atlético 3–0 Alcantarilla: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcantarilla

Dani Díez 81'

Vitolo 60'

David Valdeolivas 55'

9/25/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético62%

×Draw25%

Alcantarilla14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchAlcantarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.60

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Alcantarilla

0.60

La Unión Atlético creates 167% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

1.60

creates per match

0.59

0.62

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Alcantarilla

0.59

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Alcantarilla

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Alcantarilla →

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

86%

La Unión Atlético or Alcantarilla

75%

Draw or Alcantarilla

38%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

34%

Alcantarilla wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

80%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

47%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

22%

Alcantarilla 1+ goals

45%

Alcantarilla 2+ goals

12%

Alcantarilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

82%

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

62%

level

25%

Alcantarilla scores more

14%

La Unión Atlético at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

David Valdeolivas

60'

Douglas← Pedro López

60'

Vitolo

62'

Fran Cortés← Belencoso

62'

Tato← Sergio Jiménez

68'

Pablo Imbernón← Joaquín Parra

68'

José Nicolás← Ángel Álvarez

73'

Adrián Aguirre← Walter Navarro

73'

Dani Díez← Higón

74'

Antonio López← Papi

74'

Miguel← Marcos Díaz

77'

Diego Gil← Vitolo

81'

Alcantarilla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Vitolo

▼

Belencoso

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

62'▲Fran Cortés←▼Belencoso

62'▲Tato←▼Sergio Jiménez

73'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Walter Navarro

73'▲Dani Díez←▼Higón

77'▲Diego Gil←▼Vitolo

La Unión Atlético substitutes

CortésTatoAguirreDíezGil

Manager: Víctor Pagán

60'▲Douglas←▼Pedro López

68'▲Pablo Imbernón←▼Joaquín Parra

68'▲José Nicolás←▼Ángel Álvarez

74'▲Antonio López←▼Papi

74'▲Miguel←▼Marcos Díaz

Alcantarilla substitutes

DouglasImbernónNicolásLópezMiguel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 3–0 Alcantarilla

La Unión Atlético beat Alcantarilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 25, 2022.

Goals: David Valdeolivas (55'), Vitolo (60'), Dani Díez (81').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 3–0 Alcantarilla