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Alcantarilla vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
1/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alcantarilla31%
×Draw29%
La Unión Atlético41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.02
La Unión Atlético
1.23

La Unión Atlético creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
59%
Alcantarilla or La Unión Atlético
71%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
69%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
11%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
64%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
27%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
8%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
71%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
35%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
43%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
31%
level
29%
La Unión Atlético scores more
41%

La Unión Atlético at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Mario Ortín← Joaquin Canovas
60'
Adrián Aguirre← Mario Hernández
70'
Fran Cortés← Josema Vivancos
70'
Álex Briega← D. Denot
74'
Douglas← Marcos Díaz
89'
Torrano← Pablo Imbernón
89'
Luca Avendaño← Papi
Alcantarilla
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Javi Rosa
Rosa
Mario Hernández
▼
Hernández
Walter Navarro
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
D. Denot
▼
Denot
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
Monty
Monty
Tato
Tato
Belencoso
Belencoso
Josema Vivancos
▼
Vivancos
Miguel Martínez
Martínez
Trucha
Trucha
G. Argüello
Argüello
S. Kabore
Kabore
Diego Cárceles
Cárceles
Luis Manzanera
Manzanera
Pedro López
López
Joaquin Canovas
▼
Canovas
Pablo Imbernón
▼
Imbernón
Papi
▼
Papi
Marcos Díaz
▼
Díaz
Víctor Romero
Manager: Víctor Romero
46'▲Mario Ortín←▼Joaquin Canovas
74'▲Douglas←▼Marcos Díaz
89'▲Torrano←▼Pablo Imbernón
89'▲Luca Avendaño←▼Papi

Alcantarilla substitutes

OrtínDouglasTorranoAvendaño
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
60'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Mario Hernández
70'▲Fran Cortés←▼Josema Vivancos
70'▲Álex Briega←▼D. Denot

La Unión Atlético substitutes

AguirreCortésBriega

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 0–0 La Unión Atlético

Alcantarilla and La Unión Atlético drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.