La Palma 3–2 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

La Palma

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Ciudad de Lucena

Diego Vargas 76'

Manolo Suárez 11' (pen)

Sergio Barrera 5'

Sergio Rivera 37'

Álvaro Cascajo 17'

4/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

La Palma35%

×Draw28%

Ciudad de Lucena37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.18

La Palma

1.13

Ciudad de Lucena

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

63%

La Palma or Ciudad de Lucena

72%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

65%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

14%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

68%

La Palma 2+ goals

31%

La Palma 3+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

69%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

33%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

48%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Palma scores more

35%

level

28%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

37%

Ciudad de Lucena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Sergio Barrera

11'

Manolo SuárezPenalty

17'

Álvaro Cascajo

34'

Miguel Cancelo← José Cruz

37'

Sergio Rivera

56'

Diego Vargas← Manolo Suárez

56'

Daniel Robledo← Sergio Barrera

63'

David Agudo← Sergio Rivera

68'

Manu Picón← Ángel Luque

76'

Diego Vargas

78'

Sergio López← Rafa Manosalva

85'

Diego Rosado← Diego Luís

85'

Manu Cruzado← Carlos Rojas

Ciudad

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Barrera

Cazorla

Manager: Dioni Arroyo

56'▲Diego Vargas←▼Manolo Suárez

56'▲Daniel Robledo←▼Sergio Barrera

68'▲Manu Picón←▼Ángel Luque

85'▲Diego Rosado←▼Diego Luís

85'▲Manu Cruzado←▼Carlos Rojas

La Palma substitutes

VargasRobledoPicónRosadoCruzado

Manager: Antonio Cobos

34'▲Miguel Cancelo←▼José Cruz

63'▲David Agudo←▼Sergio Rivera

78'▲Sergio López←▼Rafa Manosalva

Ciudad de Lucena substitutes

CanceloAgudoLópez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: La Palma 3–2 Ciudad de Lucena

La Palma beat Ciudad de Lucena 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: Sergio Barrera (5'), Manolo Suárez (11' pen), Álvaro Cascajo (17'), Sergio Rivera (37'), Diego Vargas (76').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Palma del Condado.

La Palma vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: La Palma 3–2 Ciudad de Lucena