La Palma 1–2 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

La Palma

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Lucena

Mazin 77'

L. Pierce 80'

Nacho Fernández 40' (pen)

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

La Palma35%

×Draw28%

Ciudad de Lucena37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.18

La Palma

1.13

Ciudad de Lucena

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

63%

La Palma or Ciudad de Lucena

72%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

65%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

14%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

68%

La Palma 2+ goals

31%

La Palma 3+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

69%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

33%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

48%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Palma scores more

35%

level

28%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

37%

Ciudad de Lucena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Rosa← A. Araiza

40'

Nacho FernándezPenalty

46'

Manu Calle← Mario de Iraola

46'

Marcos Pérez← Antonio Pérez

54'

Álvaro Pérez← Mario

66'

Manolo Suárez← Manu Cruzado

66'

Segura← Pablo Garcia

75'

Mazin← Carlos Martínez

75'

Víctor Morillo← Adrián Ruiz

75'

Guille Roldán← Zurdo

77'

Mazin

80'

L. Pierce

82'

Benji← Nené

Ciudad

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mario Rodriguez

46'▲Manu Calle←▼Mario de Iraola

66'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Manu Cruzado

66'▲Segura←▼Pablo Garcia

75'▲Mazin←▼Carlos Martínez

82'▲Benji←▼Nené

La Palma substitutes

CalleSuárezSeguraMazinBenji

Manager: Dimas Carrasco

11'▲S. Rosa←▼A. Araiza

46'▲Marcos Pérez←▼Antonio Pérez

54'▲Álvaro Pérez←▼Mario

75'▲Víctor Morillo←▼Adrián Ruiz

75'▲Guille Roldán←▼Zurdo

Ciudad de Lucena substitutes

RosaPérezPérezMorilloRoldán

Match Recap: La Palma vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ciudad de Lucena beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 4, 2021.

Goals: Nacho Fernández (40' pen), Mazin (77'), L. Pierce (80').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Palma del Condado.

La Palma vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Palma vs Ciudad de Lucena