La Palma 2–2 Castilleja: Result & Stats

La Palma

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Castilleja

Juan Aguilar 65'

Pablo Garcia 31'

Adrián Wojcik 45'

Álvaro Cascajo 43'

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

La Palma47%

×Draw26%

Castilleja28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchCastilleja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.11

La Palma

1.53

Castilleja

1.11

La Palma creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Castilleja

0.94

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Castilleja

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Castilleja →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

72%

La Palma or Castilleja

74%

Draw or Castilleja

53%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

24%

Castilleja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

78%

La Palma 2+ goals

45%

La Palma 3+ goals

20%

Castilleja 1+ goals

67%

Castilleja 2+ goals

30%

Castilleja 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

63%

Castilleja (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Castilleja attack 0.94 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Palma scores more

47%

level

26%

Castilleja scores more

28%

La Palma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Palma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Juan Corrales← José Gil

31'

Pablo Garcia

43'

Álvaro Cascajo

45'

Adrián Wojcik

46'

Galleti← Manu Cruzado

61'

Pedro Morillo← Alberto

65'

Juan Aguilar

74'

Finidi← Álvaro Cascajo

78'

Manolo Suárez← Nené

80'

Adrián Tovar← Pedro Varona

80'

Castilleja

▼

⚽

▼

Wojcik

▼

Alberto

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Mario Rodriguez

24'▲Juan Corrales←▼José Gil

46'▲Galleti←▼Manu Cruzado

78'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Nené

La Palma substitutes

CorralesGalletiSuárez

Manager: Alejandro Ceballos

61'▲Pedro Morillo←▼Alberto

74'▲Finidi←▼Álvaro Cascajo

80'▲Adrián Tovar←▼Pedro Varona

80'▲Pulet←▼Adrián Wojcik

Castilleja substitutes

MorilloFinidiTovarPulet