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Castilleja vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Alfonso Martin 81'
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja42%
×Draw27%
La Palma31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.32
La Palma
1.10

Castilleja creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
69%
Castilleja or La Palma
73%
Draw or La Palma
58%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
19%
La Palma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
73%
Castilleja 2+ goals
38%
Castilleja 3+ goals
15%
La Palma 1+ goals
67%
La Palma 2+ goals
30%
La Palma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
57%
La Palma (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

La Palma attack 0.88 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Castilleja scores more
42%
level
27%
La Palma scores more
31%

Castilleja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Castilleja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Segura← Galleti
58'
Pulet← Pedro Jiménez
58'
Pedro Varona← Álvaro Cascajo
76'
Álvaro Lora← Francisco García
76'
José Gordillo← Adrián Wojcik
79'
Carlitos← Manu Cruzado
81'
Alfonso Martin
83'
Mazin← Nené
89'
Armenta← Guille Solis
Castilleja
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pirri
Pirri
Nené
▼
Nené
Manu Calle
Calle
Paco
Paco
Mario de Iraola
Iraola
Alvarito
Alvarito
Manu Cruzado
▼
Cruzado
Galleti
▼
Galleti
Adrián Hernández
Hernández
Cifu
Cifu
Pedro Morillo
Morillo
Pitero
Pitero
Alfonso Martin
⚽
Martin
Álvaro Moro
Moro
Pedro Jiménez
▼
Jiménez
Francisco García
▼
García
Guille Solis
▼
Solis
Adrián Wojcik
▼
Wojcik
Álvaro Cascajo
▼
Cascajo
Alejandro Ceballos
Manager: Alejandro Ceballos
58'▲Pulet←▼Pedro Jiménez
58'▲Pedro Varona←▼Álvaro Cascajo
76'▲Álvaro Lora←▼Francisco García
76'▲José Gordillo←▼Adrián Wojcik
89'▲Armenta←▼Guille Solis

Castilleja substitutes

PuletVaronaLoraGordilloArmenta
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
35'▲Segura←▼Galleti
79'▲Carlitos←▼Manu Cruzado
83'▲Mazin←▼Nené

La Palma substitutes

SeguraCarlitosMazin

Match Recap: Castilleja vs La Palma

Castilleja beat La Palma 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 5, 2020.

Goals: Alfonso Martin (81').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.