La Palma 1–2 Atlético Onubense: Result & Stats

La Palma

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atlético Onubense

Diego Vargas 40'

Juan Almeida 25'

Cachorro 16'

5/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

La Palma36%

×Draw26%

Atlético Onubense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Onubense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.32

La Palma

1.27

Atlético Onubense

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.35

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Atlético Onubense

1.35

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Atlético Onubense

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Atlético Onubense →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

62%

La Palma or Atlético Onubense

74%

Draw or Atlético Onubense

64%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

72%

La Palma 2+ goals

36%

La Palma 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Onubense 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Onubense 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

48%

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Palma scores more

36%

level

26%

Atlético Onubense scores more

38%

Atlético Onubense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Cachorro

25'

Juan Almeida

36'

Manu Arcos← Antonio Mesa

40'

Diego Vargas

46'

Pinto← Manu Picón

46'

Mario Regalado← Viedma

50'

Juan Montes← Adan Benítez

52'

Daniel Ferja← Matias

67'

Álvaro Alcaide← Pablo Évora

67'

Ángel Álvarez← Kai Tønnessen

69'

Manolo Suárez← Diego Luís

69'

Sergio Barrera← Cazorla

80'

Daniel Robledo← Carlos Rojas

Atlético

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Dioni Arroyo

36'▲Manu Arcos←▼Antonio Mesa

46'▲Pinto←▼Manu Picón

69'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Diego Luís

69'▲Sergio Barrera←▼Cazorla

80'▲Daniel Robledo←▼Carlos Rojas

La Palma substitutes

ArcosPintoSuárezBarreraRobledo

Manager: Manolo Toledano

46'▲Mario Regalado←▼Viedma

50'▲Juan Montes←▼Adan Benítez

52'▲Daniel Ferja←▼Matias

67'▲Álvaro Alcaide←▼Pablo Évora

67'▲Ángel Álvarez←▼Kai Tønnessen

Atlético Onubense substitutes

RegaladoMontesFerjaAlcaideÁlvarez

Match Recap: La Palma vs Atlético Onubense

Atlético Onubense beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Cachorro (16'), Juan Almeida (25'), Diego Vargas (40').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Palma del Condado.

La Palma vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Palma vs Atlético Onubense