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Atlético Onubense vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Pablo Évora 23'
Matias 15'
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense48%
×Draw28%
La Palma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Onubense
1.36
La Palma
0.89

Atlético Onubense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atlético Onubense
1.06
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Onubense
0.89
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw
75%
Atlético Onubense or La Palma
72%
Draw or La Palma
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
23%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
16%
La Palma 1+ goals
59%
La Palma 2+ goals
22%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
66%
La Palma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

La Palma attack 0.88 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more
48%
level
28%
La Palma scores more
25%

Atlético Onubense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Matias
23'
Pablo Évora
46'
Pana← Pinto
46'
Diego Luís← Diego Vargas
46'
Manu Picón← Manu Arcos
46'
Álvaro Fernández← Ángel Luque
65'
Daniel Ferja← Óscar Romero
75'
Jorge Ceballos← Pablo Évora
75'
Sergio Martínez← Cachorro
75'
Juan Martín← Antonio Mesa
87'
Juan Montes← Kai Tønnessen
87'
Fran Contioso← Pablo Ruiz
Atlético
La
Ismael Falcón
Falcón
Antonio Mesa
▼
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Pedro Juan
Juan
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Diego Rosado
Rosado
Moisés Aguilar
Aguilar
Ángel Luque
▼
Luque
Manu Arcos
▼
Arcos
Diego Vargas
▼
Vargas
Pinto
▼
Pinto
Manu Fernández
Fernández
Ale Limón
Limón
Pablo Ruiz
▼
Ruiz
Israel Contioso
Contioso
Óscar Romero
▼
Romero
Iván Romero
Romero
Cachorro
▼
Cachorro
Matias
⚽
Matias
Kai Tønnessen
▼
Tønnessen
Pablo Évora
⚽
▼
Évora
Juan Almeida
Almeida
Raúl Galbarro
Manager: Raúl Galbarro
65'▲Daniel Ferja←▼Óscar Romero
75'▲Jorge Ceballos←▼Pablo Évora
75'▲Sergio Martínez←▼Cachorro
87'▲Juan Montes←▼Kai Tønnessen
87'▲Fran Contioso←▼Pablo Ruiz

Atlético Onubense substitutes

FerjaCeballosMartínezMontesContioso
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
46'▲Pana←▼Pinto
46'▲Diego Luís←▼Diego Vargas
46'▲Manu Picón←▼Manu Arcos
46'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Ángel Luque
75'▲Juan Martín←▼Antonio Mesa

La Palma substitutes

PanaLuísPicónFernándezMartín

Match Recap: Atlético Onubense vs La Palma

Atlético Onubense beat La Palma 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 12, 2025.

Goals: Matias (15'), Pablo Évora (23').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez in Huelva.