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La Granja vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
3/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

La Granja22%
×Draw26%
Gimnástica Segoviana51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
0.89
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.50

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.68

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Gimnástica Segoviana
0.57

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
49%
La Granja or Gimnástica Segoviana
74%
Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana
78%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
7%
Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
59%
La Granja 2+ goals
22%
La Granja 3+ goals
6%
Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
78%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
44%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
30%
Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.68 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Granja scores more
22%
level
26%
Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
51%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Granja 0 – 0 Gimnástica Segoviana

La Granja and Gimnástica Segoviana drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.