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Gimnástica Segoviana vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
9/11/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana75%
×Draw16%
La Granja8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.35
La Granja
0.64

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 267% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.52
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
0.59
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
92%
Gimnástica Segoviana or La Granja
84%
Draw or La Granja
25%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
52%
La Granja wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
90%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
68%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
41%
La Granja 1+ goals
47%
La Granja 2+ goals
14%
La Granja 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
90%
La Granja (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.35

La Granja attack 0.68 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
75%
level
16%
La Granja scores more
8%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs La Granja

Gimnástica Segoviana beat La Granja 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.