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La Granja vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
1/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja47%
×Draw27%
Colegios Diocesanos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
1.39
Colegios Diocesanos
0.95

La Granja creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
74%
La Granja or Colegios Diocesanos
73%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
53%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
23%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
75%
La Granja 2+ goals
40%
La Granja 3+ goals
16%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
61%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
25%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
65%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Granja scores more
47%
level
27%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
26%

La Granja at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Granja 1–2 Colegios Diocesanos

Colegios Diocesanos beat La Granja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.