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Colegios Diocesanos vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
11/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos49%
×Draw25%
La Granja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.56
La Granja
1.07

Colegios Diocesanos creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
74%
Colegios Diocesanos or La Granja
75%
Draw or La Granja
51%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
25%
La Granja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
79%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
46%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
21%
La Granja 1+ goals
66%
La Granja 2+ goals
29%
La Granja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
65%
La Granja (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

La Granja attack 0.68 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
49%
level
25%
La Granja scores more
26%

Colegios Diocesanos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colegios Diocesanos 0 – 2 La Granja

La Granja beat Colegios Diocesanos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu A in Ávila.