Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

La Granja vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja33%
×Draw29%
Burgos Promesas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
1.07
Burgos Promesas
1.18

Burgos Promesas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
62%
La Granja or Burgos Promesas
71%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
67%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
13%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
66%
La Granja 2+ goals
29%
La Granja 3+ goals
9%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
69%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
33%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
46%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Granja scores more
33%
level
29%
Burgos Promesas scores more
38%

Burgos Promesas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Granja 0–1 Burgos Promesas

Burgos Promesas beat La Granja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.