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Burgos Promesas vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Burgos Promesas63%
×Draw22%
La Granja15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.82
La Granja
0.76

Burgos Promesas creates 139% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
85%
Burgos Promesas or La Granja
78%
Draw or La Granja
37%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
37%
La Granja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
84%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
54%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
27%
La Granja 1+ goals
53%
La Granja 2+ goals
18%
La Granja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
81%
La Granja (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

La Granja attack 0.68 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
63%
level
22%
La Granja scores more
15%

Burgos Promesas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Burgos Promesas 1–0 La Granja

Burgos Promesas beat La Granja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.