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La Estrella vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

La Estrella
La Estrella
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Estrella40%
×Draw26%
Fuente Cantos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Estrella
1.44
Fuente Cantos
1.31

La Estrella creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

La Estrella
1.20
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

La Estrella
1.73
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

La Estrella+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Estrella ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

La Estrella or draw
66%
La Estrella or Fuente Cantos
74%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
60%

Winning margin

La Estrella wins by 2+
19%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

La Estrella 1+ goals
76%
La Estrella 2+ goals
42%
La Estrella 3+ goals
18%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
73%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
38%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

La Estrella (draw refunded)
54%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Estrella at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Estrella attack 1.20 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + La Estrella defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

La Estrella scores more
40%
level
26%
Fuente Cantos scores more
34%

La Estrella at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "La Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: La Estrella 1–3 Fuente Cantos

Fuente Cantos beat La Estrella 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco in Los Santos de Maimona.