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Fuente Cantos vs La Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
La Estrella
La Estrella
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuente Cantos50%
×Draw25%
La Estrella25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.58
La Estrella
1.05

Fuente Cantos creates 50% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
La Estrella
0.80

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
La Estrella
2.27

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
La Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

La Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
75%
Fuente Cantos or La Estrella
75%
Draw or La Estrella
50%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
26%
La Estrella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
79%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
47%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
21%
La Estrella 1+ goals
65%
La Estrella 2+ goals
28%
La Estrella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
66%
La Estrella (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

La Estrella away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + La Estrella defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

La Estrella attack 0.80 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
50%
level
25%
La Estrella scores more
25%

Fuente Cantos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fuente Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Fuente Cantos 2–1 La Estrella

Fuente Cantos beat La Estrella 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.