Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

La Cuadra vs Buzanada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
CANC
00:00
Buzanada
Buzanada
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

La Cuadra53%
×Draw25%
Buzanada22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.60
Buzanada
0.92

La Cuadra creates 74% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Buzanada
0.67

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Buzanada
1.66

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Buzanada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Buzanada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
78%
La Cuadra or Buzanada
75%
Draw or Buzanada
47%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
28%
Buzanada wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
80%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
47%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
22%
Buzanada 1+ goals
60%
Buzanada 2+ goals
23%
Buzanada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
71%
Buzanada (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Buzanada away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Buzanada defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Buzanada attack 0.67 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

La Cuadra scores more
53%
level
25%
Buzanada scores more
22%

La Cuadra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: La Cuadra host Buzanada

February 23, 2020: La Cuadra take on Buzanada in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

La Cuadra host Buzanada at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.