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Buzanada vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Buzanada50%
×Draw25%
La Cuadra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.58
La Cuadra
1.05

Buzanada creates 50% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
75%
Buzanada or La Cuadra
75%
Draw or La Cuadra
50%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
26%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
79%
Buzanada 2+ goals
47%
Buzanada 3+ goals
21%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
65%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
28%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
66%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buzanada scores more
50%
level
25%
La Cuadra scores more
25%

Buzanada at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buzanada vs La Cuadra

La Cuadra beat Buzanada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.