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La Calzada vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
3/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 24Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

La Calzada44%
×Draw25%
Casalarreina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.53
Casalarreina
1.22

La Calzada creates 25% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 91 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
70%
La Calzada or Casalarreina
75%
Draw or Casalarreina
56%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
22%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
78%
La Calzada 2+ goals
45%
La Calzada 3+ goals
20%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
70%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
34%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
59%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

La Calzada scores more
44%
level
25%
Casalarreina scores more
30%

La Calzada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs Casalarreina

La Calzada beat Casalarreina 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.