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Casalarreina vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
La Calzada
La Calzada
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Campo de Fútbol El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Casalarreina43%
×Draw24%
La Calzada33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.64
La Calzada
1.39

Casalarreina creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
67%
Casalarreina or La Calzada
76%
Draw or La Calzada
57%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
22%
La Calzada wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
81%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
49%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
23%
La Calzada 1+ goals
75%
La Calzada 2+ goals
40%
La Calzada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
57%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Casalarreina scores more
43%
level
24%
La Calzada scores more
33%

Casalarreina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casalarreina vs La Calzada

La Calzada beat Casalarreina 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Soto in Casalarreina.