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La Calzada vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Alfaro
Alfaro
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

La Calzada34%
×Draw25%
Alfaro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.31
Alfaro
1.45

Alfaro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 59 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
60%
La Calzada or Alfaro
75%
Draw or Alfaro
66%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
15%
Alfaro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
73%
La Calzada 2+ goals
38%
La Calzada 3+ goals
14%
Alfaro 1+ goals
77%
Alfaro 2+ goals
42%
Alfaro 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
46%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alfaro attack 1.80 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

La Calzada scores more
34%
level
25%
Alfaro scores more
40%

Alfaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: La Calzada 3–4 Alfaro

Alfaro beat La Calzada 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.