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Alfaro vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro54%
×Draw23%
La Calzada23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.85
La Calzada
1.13

Alfaro creates 64% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
77%
Alfaro or La Calzada
77%
Draw or La Calzada
46%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
31%
La Calzada wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
84%
Alfaro 2+ goals
55%
Alfaro 3+ goals
28%
La Calzada 1+ goals
68%
La Calzada 2+ goals
31%
La Calzada 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
70%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alfaro scores more
54%
level
23%
La Calzada scores more
23%

Alfaro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alfaro 4 – 1 La Calzada

Alfaro beat La Calzada 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.