La Bañeza 0–4 Gimnástica Segoviana: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Gimnástica Segoviana

Dani Calleja 84'

Alex Conde 52'

Asier Arranz 34' (pen)

Javi Borrego 3'

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

La Bañeza19%

×Draw25%

Gimnástica Segoviana56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.59

La Bañeza

0.80

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.59

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 99% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

1.03

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.68

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

44%

La Bañeza or Gimnástica Segoviana

75%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

81%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

55%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

19%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

80%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

47%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

25%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.80

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.68 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

La Bañeza scores more

19%

level

25%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

56%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Javi Borrego

34'

Asier ArranzPenalty

52'

Alex Conde

60'

Chema Suárez← Moreno

61'

Diego Gómez← Dani Abad

64'

Samuel Mayo← Garrido

67'

Dani Calleja← Rui Gomes

70'

Pablo Martínez← Ricardo

71'

Iván Sales← Javi Borrego

84'

Gimnástica

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Román

60'▲Chema Suárez←▼Moreno

64'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Garrido

70'▲Pablo Martínez←▼Ricardo

La Bañeza substitutes

SuárezMayoMartínez

Manager: Manu González

61'▲Diego Gómez←▼Dani Abad

67'▲Dani Calleja←▼Rui Gomes

71'▲Iván Sales←▼Javi Borrego

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

GómezCallejaSales

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 0–4 Gimnástica Segoviana

Gimnástica Segoviana beat La Bañeza 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Javi Borrego (3'), Asier Arranz (34' pen), Alex Conde (52'), Dani Calleja (84').

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 0–4 Gimnástica Segoviana