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Gimnástica Segoviana vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Alex Conde 55'
Pedro Astray 36'
Ivi 33'
Iván Sales 10'
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana71%
×Draw19%
La Bañeza10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.10
La Bañeza
0.64

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 228% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.52
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
0.59
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
90%
Gimnástica Segoviana or La Bañeza
81%
Draw or La Bañeza
29%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
46%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
88%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
62%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
35%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
47%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
14%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
88%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.10

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
71%
level
19%
La Bañeza scores more
10%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Iván Sales
33'
Ivi
36'
Pedro Astray
46'
Balta← Manu Olmedilla
46'
Álvaro de Lera← Hamelín
55'
Alex Conde
58'
Sergio Arévalo← Chupo Yubero
59'
Bruno Barrio← Ricardo
66'
Marcos Ordás← Rony
75'
Alejandro Barbudo← Iván Sales
Gimnástica
La
Camilo
Camilo
Garrido
Garrido
Pablo González
González
Sampedro
Sampedro
Hamelín
▼
Hamelín
Aitor García
García
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Diego García
García
Chema Suárez
Suárez
Rony
▼
Rony
Ricardo
▼
Ricardo
Christian Martín
Martín
Rui Gomes
Gomes
Javi Marcos
Marcos
Chupo Yubero
▼
Yubero
Manu Olmedilla
▼
Olmedilla
Iván Sales
⚽
▼
Sales
Pedro Astray
⚽
Astray
Dani Abad
Abad
Alex Conde
⚽
Conde
Víctor Martín
Martín
Ivi
⚽
Ivi
Manu González
Manager: Manu González
46'▲Balta←▼Manu Olmedilla
58'▲Sergio Arévalo←▼Chupo Yubero
75'▲Alejandro Barbudo←▼Iván Sales

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

BaltaArévaloBarbudo
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
46'▲Álvaro de Lera←▼Hamelín
59'▲Bruno Barrio←▼Ricardo
66'▲Marcos Ordás←▼Rony

La Bañeza substitutes

LeraBarrioOrdás

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs La Bañeza

Gimnástica Segoviana beat La Bañeza 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 23, 2020.

Goals: Iván Sales (10'), Ivi (33'), Pedro Astray (36'), Alex Conde (55').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.