La Bañeza 1–1 Cultural Leonesa II: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cultural Leonesa II

Álvaro de Lera 74' (pen)

Dani Abad 7'

1/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza30%

×Draw27%

Cultural Leonesa II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.33

La Bañeza

1.06

Cultural Leonesa II

1.33

Cultural Leonesa II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

1.17

1.50

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Cultural Leonesa II

1.17

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Cultural Leonesa II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

57%

La Bañeza or Cultural Leonesa II

73%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa II

70%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

11%

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

65%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

29%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals

74%

Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals

38%

Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

41%

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Bañeza scores more

30%

level

27%

Cultural Leonesa II scores more

43%

Cultural Leonesa II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Dani Abad

15'

Eriz García← Pablo Martínez

61'

Lucas Rodríguez← Dani Abad

63'

Jorge Prieto← Eriz García

63'

Dani Alonso← Rubén Burón

74'

Álvaro de LeraPenalty

80'

Diego Franco← Erik Del Río

80'

Alberto Escarda← Percan

80'

S. Lauture← Marcos González

87'

Diego Díaz← Víctor García

Cultural

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

15'▲Eriz García←▼Pablo Martínez

63'▲Jorge Prieto←▼Eriz García

63'▲Dani Alonso←▼Rubén Burón

80'▲Diego Franco←▼Erik Del Río

La Bañeza substitutes

GarcíaPrietoAlonsoFranco

Manager: Ramón

61'▲Lucas Rodríguez←▼Dani Abad

80'▲Alberto Escarda←▼Percan

80'▲S. Lauture←▼Marcos González

87'▲Diego Díaz←▼Víctor García

Cultural Leonesa II substitutes

RodríguezEscardaLautureDíaz

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 1–1 Cultural Leonesa II

La Bañeza and Cultural Leonesa II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 16, 2021.

Goals: Dani Abad (7'), Álvaro de Lera (74' pen).

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 1–1 Cultural Leonesa II