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Cultural Leonesa II vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Abel 63'
Aitor García 89'
10/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II51%
×Draw26%
La Bañeza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.55
La Bañeza
0.96

Cultural Leonesa II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
77%
Cultural Leonesa II or La Bañeza
74%
Draw or La Bañeza
49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
26%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
79%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
46%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
20%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
62%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
25%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
69%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
51%
level
26%
La Bañeza scores more
23%

Cultural Leonesa II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Dani Abad← Javier Álvarez
46'
Jairo← Marcos Fernández
46'
Abel← Marcos González
63'
Abel
67'
Aitor García← Eriz García
67'
Victor Fernandez← Pablo Martínez
72'
Víctor García← Alberto Escarda
74'
Yordan← Rubén Burón
77'
Javier Llabres← Diego Díaz
84'
Juan del Pino← Erik Del Río
84'
Oscar Zabalo← Hugo Murciego
89'
Aitor García
Cultural
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Pablo González
González
Mateo
Mateo
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Hugo Murciego
▼
Murciego
Eriz García
▼
García
Pablo Martínez
▼
Martínez
Jorge Prieto
Prieto
Jorge Suárez
Suárez
Rubén Burón
▼
Burón
Erik Del Río
▼
Río
Diego Rodríguez
Rodríguez
Miguel Manso
Manso
Álvaro López
López
S. Lauture
Lauture
Marcos González
▼
González
Alberto Escarda
▼
Escarda
Diego Díaz
▼
Díaz
Javi Fernández
Fernández
Javier Álvarez
▼
Álvarez
Marcos Fernández
▼
Fernández
Percan
Percan
Ramón
Manager: Ramón
46'▲Dani Abad←▼Javier Álvarez
46'▲Jairo←▼Marcos Fernández
46'▲Abel←▼Marcos González
72'▲Víctor García←▼Alberto Escarda
77'▲Javier Llabres←▼Diego Díaz

Cultural Leonesa II substitutes

AbadJairoAbelGarcíaLlabres
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
67'▲Aitor García←▼Eriz García
67'▲Victor Fernandez←▼Pablo Martínez
74'▲Yordan←▼Rubén Burón
84'▲Juan del Pino←▼Erik Del Río
84'▲Oscar Zabalo←▼Hugo Murciego

La Bañeza substitutes

GarcíaFernandezYordanPinoZabalo

Cultural Leonesa II 1 – 1 La Bañeza

Cultural Leonesa II and La Bañeza drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 17, 2020.

Goals: Abel (63'), Aitor García (89').

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.