La Bañeza 0–1 Cultural Cebrereña: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cultural Cebrereña

Chino 46'

5/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

La Bañeza43%

×Draw26%

Cultural Cebrereña31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchCultural Cebrereña

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

La Bañeza

1.46

Cultural Cebrereña

1.19

La Bañeza creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

1.03

creates per match

0.88

1.50

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Cultural Cebrereña

0.88

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Cultural Cebrereña

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

69%

La Bañeza or Cultural Cebrereña

74%

Draw or Cultural Cebrereña

57%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

21%

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

77%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

43%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

18%

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals

70%

Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals

33%

Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

58%

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Bañeza scores more

43%

level

26%

Cultural Cebrereña scores more

31%

La Bañeza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Yordan← Jorge Suárez

46'

Chino

59'

Eriz García← Adrián Rojo

59'

Hugo Murciego← Diego Franco

67'

Erik Del Río← Oscar Zabalo

73'

Juan del Pino← Aitor García

75'

Fernando← Sebas

83'

Álex Rubio← Chino

89'

Guille Velayos← Manuel De Juan

Cultural

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

46'▲Yordan←▼Jorge Suárez

59'▲Eriz García←▼Adrián Rojo

59'▲Hugo Murciego←▼Diego Franco

67'▲Erik Del Río←▼Oscar Zabalo

73'▲Juan del Pino←▼Aitor García

La Bañeza substitutes

YordanGarcíaMurciegoRíoPino

Manager: Pepe García

75'▲Fernando←▼Sebas

83'▲Álex Rubio←▼Chino

89'▲Guille Velayos←▼Manuel De Juan

Cultural Cebrereña substitutes

FernandoRubioVelayos