Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cultural Cebrereña vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
David Terleira 55', 16' (pen)
Adrián González 52'
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio El Mancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cultural Cebrereña48%
×Draw28%
La Bañeza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Cebrereña
1.34
La Bañeza
0.87

Cultural Cebrereña creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.00
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.06
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Cebrereña ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cultural Cebrereña or draw
76%
Cultural Cebrereña or La Bañeza
72%
Draw or La Bañeza
52%

Winning margin

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
23%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
74%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
39%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
15%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
58%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
22%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
66%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Cebrereña at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Cebrereña attack 1.00 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cultural Cebrereña scores more
48%
level
28%
La Bañeza scores more
24%

Cultural Cebrereña at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cultural Cebrereña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
David TerleiraPenalty
46'
Adrián Rojo← Jorge Suárez
52'
Adrián González
55'
David Terleira
59'
Jorge Prieto← Pablo González
59'
Eriz García← Samuel Mayo
65'
Juan del Pino← Aitor García
69'
Oscar Zabalo← Yordan
76'
Chino← Manuel De Juan
76'
Adrián Hernández← Pichu
83'
Pedro Gutiérrez← Sebas
Cultural
La
Martin Diez
Diez
Pablo González
▼
González
Victor Fernandez
Fernandez
Diego Franco
Franco
Aitor García
▼
García
Samuel Mayo
▼
Mayo
Dani Alonso
Alonso
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Jorge Suárez
▼
Suárez
Yordan
▼
Yordan
Erik Del Río
Río
Javier Gordo
Gordo
Ruba
Ruba
Alejandro
Alejandro
Sebas
▼
Sebas
Iván Merino
Merino
Pichu
▼
Pichu
Adrián Garrido
Garrido
Pablo de Juan
Juan
Adrián González
⚽
González
David Terleira
⚽2
Terleira
Manuel De Juan
▼
Juan
Pepe García
Manager: Pepe García
76'▲Chino←▼Manuel De Juan
76'▲Adrián Hernández←▼Pichu
83'▲Pedro Gutiérrez←▼Sebas

Cultural Cebrereña substitutes

ChinoHernándezGutiérrez
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
46'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Jorge Suárez
59'▲Jorge Prieto←▼Pablo González
59'▲Eriz García←▼Samuel Mayo
65'▲Juan del Pino←▼Aitor García
69'▲Oscar Zabalo←▼Yordan

La Bañeza substitutes

RojoPrietoGarcíaPinoZabalo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Cebrereña 3–0 La Bañeza

Cultural Cebrereña beat La Bañeza 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 11, 2021.

Goals: David Terleira (16' pen, 55'), Adrián González (52').

The match was played at Estadio El Mancho in Cebreros.