La Bañeza 0–3 Colegios Diocesanos: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Colegios Diocesanos

Fernando Martínez 87'

Vicente 81'

Sergio Alonso 46'

5/1/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza43%

×Draw28%

Colegios Diocesanos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchColegios Diocesanos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

La Bañeza

1.31

Colegios Diocesanos

1.03

La Bañeza creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

1.03

creates per match

0.56

1.50

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Colegios Diocesanos

0.56

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Colegios Diocesanos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

71%

La Bañeza or Colegios Diocesanos

72%

Draw or Colegios Diocesanos

57%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

20%

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

73%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

38%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

14%

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals

64%

Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals

28%

Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

59%

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Bañeza scores more

43%

level

28%

Colegios Diocesanos scores more

29%

La Bañeza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Sergio Alonso

53'

Jorge Prieto← Lorento

53'

Dani Alonso← Hugo Murciego

66'

Mateo← Erik Del Río

79'

Rubén Burón← Oscar Zabalo

81'

Vicente

82'

Javier Hernández← Christian Pindado

87'

Victor Meneses← Diego Rodríguez

87'

Luís← Quique

87'

Fernando Martínez

90'

Diego Pedroso← Sergio Alonso

Colegios

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

53'▲Jorge Prieto←▼Lorento

53'▲Dani Alonso←▼Hugo Murciego

66'▲Mateo←▼Erik Del Río

79'▲Rubén Burón←▼Oscar Zabalo

La Bañeza substitutes

PrietoAlonsoMateoBurón

Manager: Alberto Fernández

82'▲Javier Hernández←▼Christian Pindado

87'▲Victor Meneses←▼Diego Rodríguez

87'▲Luís←▼Quique

90'▲Diego Pedroso←▼Sergio Alonso

Colegios Diocesanos substitutes

HernándezMenesesLuísPedroso