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Colegios Diocesanos vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Vicente 90+7'
Victor Meneses 84'
6/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 11Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos42%
×Draw28%
La Bañeza30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.31
La Bañeza
1.07

Colegios Diocesanos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
70%
Colegios Diocesanos or La Bañeza
72%
Draw or La Bañeza
58%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
19%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
73%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
38%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
14%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
66%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
29%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
58%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.31

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
42%
level
28%
La Bañeza scores more
30%

Colegios Diocesanos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
Javier Hernández← Nacho
60'
Pablo Gonzalez← Sergio Alonso
60'
Christian Pindado← Diego Rodríguez
60'
Rubén Burón← Diego Franco
67'
Victor Meneses← Quique
75'
Erik Del Río← Jorge Suárez
76'
Ismael← Sergio Mayorga
84'
Victor Meneses
85'
Mateo← Aitor García
85'
Yordan← Dani Alonso
90+7'
Vicente
Colegios
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Pablo González
González
Victor Fernandez
Fernandez
Diego Franco
▼
Franco
Aitor García
▼
García
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Oscar Zabalo
Zabalo
Dani Alonso
▼
Alonso
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Lorento
Lorento
Jorge Suárez
▼
Suárez
Darío
Darío
Oliver
Oliver
Diego Rodríguez
▼
Rodríguez
Nacho
▼
Nacho
Vicente
⚽
Vicente
Ángel Encinar
Encinar
Mario
Mario
Fernando Martínez
Martínez
Quique
▼
Quique
Sergio Mayorga
▼
Mayorga
Sergio Alonso
▼
Alonso
Alberto Fernández
Manager: Alberto Fernández
60'▲Javier Hernández←▼Nacho
60'▲Pablo Gonzalez←▼Sergio Alonso
60'▲Christian Pindado←▼Diego Rodríguez
67'▲Victor Meneses←▼Quique
76'▲Ismael←▼Sergio Mayorga

Colegios Diocesanos substitutes

HernándezGonzalezPindadoMenesesIsmael
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
60'▲Rubén Burón←▼Diego Franco
75'▲Erik Del Río←▼Jorge Suárez
85'▲Mateo←▼Aitor García
85'▲Yordan←▼Dani Alonso

La Bañeza substitutes

BurónRíoMateoYordan

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs La Bañeza

Colegios Diocesanos beat La Bañeza 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on June 12, 2021.

Goals: Victor Meneses (84'), Vicente (90+7').

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.