La Bañeza 1–0 Burgos Promesas: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burgos Promesas

Álvaro de Lera 27'

3/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza29%

×Draw28%

Burgos Promesas43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchBurgos Promesas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.26

La Bañeza

0.98

Burgos Promesas

1.26

Burgos Promesas creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

1.03

creates per match

1.02

1.50

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Burgos Promesas

1.02

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Burgos Promesas

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Burgos Promesas →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

57%

La Bañeza or Burgos Promesas

72%

Draw or Burgos Promesas

71%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

10%

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

62%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

26%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

72%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

36%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

40%

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Bañeza scores more

29%

level

28%

Burgos Promesas scores more

43%

Burgos Promesas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Álvaro de Lera

65'

Raúl Espinosa← Enrique Cerezo

74'

Jesús Torres← Casado

75'

Bruno Barrio← Chema Suárez

81'

Samuel Mayo← David Borge

83'

Ricardo← Lorento

Burgos

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

75'▲Bruno Barrio←▼Chema Suárez

81'▲Samuel Mayo←▼David Borge

83'▲Ricardo←▼Lorento

La Bañeza substitutes

BarrioMayoRicardo

Manager: Carlos Aguilera

65'▲Raúl Espinosa←▼Enrique Cerezo

74'▲Jesús Torres←▼Casado

Burgos Promesas substitutes

EspinosaTorres